The upcoming Irish election on the 29th of November will inevitably be a referendum of current economic policy as seen around many countries across the globe. The response to inflation, high prices for living, and pay not keeping up with costs has seen incumbent governments be swept out of power for new coalitions, parties, and ideas. Ireland may likely follow this trend. While voters tend to consider domestic policy over foreign policy, this election cycle proves to show a stronger influence for international affairs impacting domestic concerns and outcomes.
First, the election of Donald Trump in the United States may signal a weakening of the Irish economy, as Trump plans to cut corporation taxes from 21% down to 15%. This would effectively get rid of Ireland’s tax advantage and may cause companies to shift resources and jobs back to the US or other countries with lower rates. Additionally, Trump’s proposed tariffs on imports, which would cover the EU, would hinder global trade and reduce Irish profits in the long run. The Irish Prime Minster has warned of potential “transatlantic trade shocks” that may develop (Irish Examiner).

In further analysis of global trends, no surprise is found in the result of record migration to Ireland. The war in Ukraine has led to over 100,000 refugees moving to Ireland, in addition to the many refugees arriving from elsewhere around the globe. Since 2021, the amount of asylum seekers has more than tripled. (Migration to Ireland – The latest facts and figures) The influx of people through the legal refugee and asylum framework, EU programs, and unofficial channels have proved difficult for the current government to manage. The housing shortage already under way in Ireland during the pre covid era has gotten worse and many people are priced out of housing. Additionally, there are fewer social resources and waiting times have increased to see a doctor or find a classroom spot. There have also been positive impacts such as increasing population to rural areas and having more non-traditional or unpopular jobs be filled.

The Israel Gaza war has proven to be a rallying point in Irish politics. Many Irish people see similarities between the historical treatment of the Irish by the British to the treatment of the Gazans by the Israelis. Ireland has also agreed to sign on to the International Court of Justice (ICJ) case against Israel. (Ireland to join ICJ case against Israel). Many Irish voters, want this conflict to remain a topic of foreign affairs and not influence domestic security, as seen recently in the Netherlands with outbreaks of violence between pro-Israel and pro-Gaza supporters.

To conclude, Many voters will be assessing the proper path for the country moving forward while taking into account major domestic concerns, mainly the economy and security. These concerns have been increasingly falling outside the scope of the reach of domestic policies, and thus the next Irish leader will need a strong focus on foreign policy to help stabilize impacts at home. The next prime minister will be challenged in dealing with the US, Ukraine, EU, UK, UN, and even NATO. Many of the global socioeconomic trends will have strong impacts on the Irish economy, migration, and Ireland’s social trajectory for the next decades to come.